Tag: NCAA Football

Air Force (10-2) vs. Washington St (6-6) Cheez-It Bowl (Dec 27^th) Phoenix, AZ

The name value of this bowl alone piques my interest along with the infamous 2018 version of the Cheez-It Bowl, a barnburner that featured TCU defeating Cal 10-7 where there were nine combined interceptions. I would like to guess that this year’s game will be a lot different with both teams bringing two of the most explosive offenses in the country, but each doing so in drastically different ways.

Air Force Falcons

The Cadets from Colorado Springs will roll into Phoenix off a 10-2 campaign with their only losses coming to Mountain West champion Boise State and possible Commander-In-Chief Trophy winner Navy. Since head coach Troy Calhoun took the helm in 2007, this is his third 10-win season and the first time he has won seven conference games.

What makes this matchup so intriguing is the fact Air Force runs the triple option and Washington State runs the Air Raid. Air Force ranks 3^rd in the country in rushing yards per game only behind Army and Navy. Led by Junior QB Donald Hammond III and the three headed monster of Kadin Remsberg, Timothy Jackson and Taven Birdow, the Falcons have no shortage of weapons out of the backfield. What makes this offense so hard to defend is that all the backs are utilized with regularity as all of them have over 100 carries this season. They will match up against a porous Cougar defense that ranks 113^th in the country in total defense. Air Force is also the least penalized team in the country averaging under 4 per game.

Washington State Cougars

Mike Leach’s squad has disappointed this year falling to 6-6 after a very successful 11-2 season last year, capped with a victory in the Alamo Bowl. This will be a fifth straight bowl appearance for the Cougars and they’re looking to win back-to-back bowl games for the first time in program history. This is also the first time the cougars have won fewer than 8 games since 2014.

As long as Mike Leach is the head coach you know the team will throw the ball, and throw the ball a lot. The Washington State passing game is as potent as ever with Senior QB Anthony Gordon shattering the PAC 12 passing record set in 2018 by his predecessor Gardner Minshew. Gordon’s ability to throw the ball was on display all season but never more than the September 21^st meltdown loss to UCLA. Gordon threw for 570 yards and record 9 touchdown. The Cougars also feature a multi-purpose back in Max Borghi who has over 1,300 total yards and 15 touchdowns. They will be matched up against an Air Force Pass defense that ranks 40^th nationally.

Key to the Game

This game will come down to the Air Force offense and their ability to chew clock and punch it into the end zone. Both teams will run up the score and if Air Force is able to limit the amount of possessions Anthony Gordon has they will be in good shape to take this game.

#15 Notre Dame (10-2) vs Iowa State (7-5) Camping World Bowl (Dec 28^th) Orlando, FL

The Camping World Bowl will feature two teams falling short of 2019 expectations. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish came into the season with CFP expectations or worst case a NY6 appearance. Having their third 10-win season in a row, I would still call it a very successful season in South Bend. Iowa State came off 2018 with an Alamo Bowl appearance and tied for third in the Big 12. Many expected them to make the jump and play Oklahoma in Arlington, TX for the conference title and end up in the Sugar Bowl. Losing 5 games by one or two points makes it very difficult to move up that ladder and instead Baylor is in New Orleans.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Even though Notre Dame plays on NBC every weekend it seems like they have flown under the radar this season as far as the national spotlight. They fell in their two biggest games of the year and after they were embarrassed in Ann Arbor on October 26^th, everyone put them on the back burner. Don’t be fooled though, this is still a very good team. The Irish come into this game having won five in a row and are 6-2 against bowl-bound teams in 2019.

The Fighting Irish boast one of the better dual threat QB’s in the country in Ian Book. His 33 passing touchdowns are tied for sixth in the country and adds four more on the ground. His favorite target is senior WR Chase Claypool who has 891 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season. Overall the Irish offense is above average and they rely on their 21^st ranked defense to step up and generate turnovers. They are tied for 3^rd nationally with a +15 turnover margin and their ability to protect the football has propelled them to their 10-2 record.

Iowa State Cyclones

Matt Campbell has done one of the most impressive jobs as far as building a competitive program. He has taken a perennial big 12 doormat to three straight winning seasons and as many bowl games. Since the Big 12 moved to 10 teams in 2012, Iowa State had never had a recruiting class finish higher than 8^th in the conference according to 247sports class rankings. Counting 2017 as his first full year of recruiting, he as finished 7^th, 7^th , 6^th and currently is ranked 4^th for the recruiting cycle of 2020. He is building a winning culture in Ames and it is starting to show.

The MVP of this Iowa State team has to be Brock Purdy. As only a sophomore, he is closing in on 4,000 passing yards this season with 27 touchdowns. He was described as a pocket passer out of Gilbert, AZ but he has 8 rushing touchdowns this year as well. With a team that ranks 9^th in the country in passing offense the Cyclones will need Purdy to drive this offense if they are to compete with a fundamentally sound Notre Dame squad.

Key to the Game

The winner of the game will be the winner of Brock Purdy and the Cyclones pass offense vs. The Notre Dame pass defense. Checking in as the 3^rd best in the country, Purdy will have his hands full against Kyle Hamilton and the ball-hawking Notre Dame secondary. If Purdy is able to play like he has this season it would not shock me to see Iowa State pull off the upset.

Yesterday, Sunday, December 8th, the College Football Playoff selection show released the top-4 playoff teams to compete for a national championship. The rankings were:

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

The selection show did not hold as much drama this year, as the top-4 were generally agreed upon since Utah lost to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. However, the one spot that surprised some people was that LSU jumped Ohio State for the #1 spot. LSU beat Georgia 37-10 in the SEC championship to surpass Ohio State who beat Wisconsin 34-21 in the Big 10 Championship. Some college football fans did not agree with the committees decision, but here is why LSU undoubtedly deserved to be ranked #1.

1.Ranked Wins

LSU’s wins against final ranked opponents (opponents currently ranked in the top-25) were more impressive than Ohio State.

LSU’s wins vs final ranked opponents:

• #5 Georgia
• #9 Florida
• #12 Auburn
• #13 Alabama

Ohio State’s wins vs final ranked opponents

• #8 Wisconsin (twice)
• #10 Penn State
• #14 Michigan
• #21 Cincinati

While both teams had incredible wins over final ranked wins, it is apparent that LSU has the edge. The win over #5 Georgia gave LSU the boost over Ohio State since the Buckeyes have no top-5 wins, and not as many top-15 wins as LSU.

2.The Final Statement

In the past, it is obvious the College Football Playoff Committee takes in account teams’ “final statement” on their last game of the regular season

In 2014, Ohio State jumped a spot to get in the College Football playoffs over TCU because they made a statement by beating #11 Wisconsin 59-0 in their final Big-10 game. Ohio State made a statement to the committee on why they should be in the playoffs.

LSU put a beatdown on Georgia this past weekend 37-10. From the the start of the game, LSU got the lead and only added to their lead posting almost 200 more total yards than Georgia, and winning the turnover battle. It was 34-3 in the fourth quarter, and all the fans knew this game was just about over.

Meanwhile, Ohio State beat Wisconsin this week, but did not put on as impressive of a performance. Ohio State was down two scores at halftime, and had to climb their way back to beat Wisconsin. While Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin was very impressive, it was not dominant like LSU’s win.

LSU winning in a dominant fashion showed the committee their final statement, on why they should be the #1 need.

LSU will go on to face Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, while Ohio State will go one to face Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

We are less than 2 hours away from the first kickoff of championship weekend when Utah takes it’s CFP hopes into the PAC-12 Championship against Oregon. Here, we’ll be previewing the Big 12 Championship which will kick at 11:00 AM CST Saturday morning between two 11-1 teams in the #6 Oklahoma Sooners and the #7 Baylor Bears.

As is the nature of a round-robin league, this game will be a rematch from the November 16^th thriller in Waco. Up 31-10 at the half (and 28-3 at one point), the Baylor offense vanished, allowing Oklahoma to come roaring back to a 34-31 victory while controlling the ball for 24 of the 30 minutes in the second half.

Heading into tomorrow’s title game, the Sooners will be looking to win their 5^th straight conference title and 7^th of the decade. The Bears, meanwhile, will hope to avenge their brutal loss from three weeks ago and put a bow on what has been a magical season that has surpassed all expectations for this rebuilding program. With a win, either team could make a strong case for the 4^th spot in the College Football Playoff. Although, if Georgia upsets LSU or Utah looks extremely convincing against Oregon, the Big 12 would likely be left out regardless of this game’s outcome.

Disclaimer: Despite my best efforts, as a recent Baylor grad, there is going to be some very innate bias going on.

Let’s get into it:

OU Offense vs BU Defense:

Oklahoma Offense:

The Sooner offense is hands down the best in the country. They rank #1 in SP+ offensive efficiency and #1 in total offense with 564 YPG, but this isn’t exactly the same high-flying, fast-paced, spread offense that we’ve seen the past several years led by Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. As Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy pointed out last week, OU is really more of “a wishbone team… This is a triple option team, and it’s just disguised as a spread.” The numbers back this up too. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has 196 carries on the year compared to just 140 from Kyler Murray last season.

This heavier run-based approach has allowed the Sooners to control the ball very successfully to the tune of 16 TD drives of 4+ minutes in conference play (and 12 in their last 5 games). For comparison, Baylor only has 7 such drives in conference games this year. Make no mistake though, Oklahoma can still strike quickly especially via the ever-explosive WR CeeDee Lamb who sat out of the first matchup against Baylor in concussion protocol.

Baylor Defense

This Baylor defense is elite, which is not something you would expect to write about any Big 12 defense much less this Baylor unit that, last year, struggled to generate turnovers, allowed explosive play after explosive play, and ranked 91^st in total defense. With a focus on eliminating big plays, defensive coordinator Phil Snow has turned this group of experienced seniors around, shifting to a 3-3-5 scheme in the off-season that allows the defense to keep plays in front of them. As a result, the Bears are ranked 15^th in the country in SP+ defensive efficiency and are tied for 2^nd in turnovers forced.

The defensive line group has been the Bears’ greatest strength. Led by Big 12 Defensive POTY James Lynch, Baylor is 19^th in the nation in tackles for loss and 9^th in sacks. This is one of the best defenses the Big 12 has seen in several years. Not without blemish though, third downs have been this teams’ glaring weakness. Opponents are converting on third down 39% of the time against the Baylor defense, ranking them 66^th in the FBS. OU’s offense, meanwhile, converts on 52% of third downs, good enough for 4^th in the country.

Keys to the Matchup

• Last time, Oklahoma clawed back into the game on Jalen Hurts’ legs and finding space via short dump offs on crossing routes over the middle. Will the Baylor defensive play-calling adjust and be slightly more aggressive? Or will they drop back in an effort to contain Lamb and the rest of the OU receivers group?
• In the second half of the first meeting between these teams, OU was 9 for 11 on third down. Can the Bears’ defense get themselves off the field by means other than a turnover?

BU Offense vs OU Defense

Baylor Offense

The Baylor offense doesn’t have a particularly strong identity, but one primary source of success for this offense has really been the legs of quarterback Charlie Brewer, albeit in a very different way from Jalen Hurts in the OU offense. While the play-calling does include a reasonable number of designed runs for Brewer, many of his rushes have resulted from scrambles and have come at crucial moments in close games. Pass protection has been a huge issue for Baylor currently ranked 95^th in the country allowing 2.4 sacks per game. Not all of the blame rests on the offensive line though, as Brewer has shown a distaste for throwing the ball away (or at all sometimes)

This unit is not without play-makers though. Senior Denzel Mims was a first team All-Big 12 selection at WR and probably one of the best jump ball receivers in the country. Tyquan Thornton is an electric sophomore and a dangerous deep ball threat. The Bears will also get a shot in the arm with the return of versatile RB Trestan Ebner to full health. The junior has good vision and cut-back ability in the running game and is even better catching passes out of the backfield, but Ebner has been limited due to an injury for much of Baylor’s conference schedule.

Oklahoma Defense

Similar to the story with the Baylor defense, Oklahoma has improved drastically this year on the defensive side of the ball. The Sooners currently rank at 41^st in SP+ defensive rankings, which may not sound like much but is an impressive reversal considering this defense was 101^st in total defense in 2018. Many have (accurately) attributed OU’s lack of success in the CFP to their lack of defense, but this unit might just be good enough to support their elite offense. Led by veteran LB Kenneth Murray, the Sooners have been exceptional on third down, allowing opponents to convert on just 31% of attempts, good for 13^th in the country.

The one thing holding this unit back is a lack of turnovers. Forcing just 11 on the season, Oklahoma is tied for 121^st nationally in takeaways. They have, however, come up with them at key moments. An interception on a 2 point conversion attempt late in the fourth quarter prevented an upset at the hands of Iowa State. Stripping JaMychal Hasty and picking off Charlie Brewer in the second half were vital in that comeback over Baylor, and lastly a late interception of Max Duggan thwarted a potential TCU comeback two weeks ago in Norman.

Keys to the Matchup

• What will Baylor do to slow down the pass rush and provide better protection for Brewer? More designed QB runs to keep the defense honest? Keeping TEs and RBs back in pass protection?
• Can the Baylor offense stay on the field on third down? A large component of Oklahoma’s comeback was forcing three 3-and-outs in the second half, which kept the Baylor defense from catching a breather.

Special Teams

Baylor has been an incredibly confusing team on special teams this season. They are tied for second in the nation in blocked kicks with 5 on the season, but have been abysmally bad in the punting game and thus have struggled in the field position department. This lack of success punting the ball has been especially baffling as Isaac Power, Baylor’s true freshman punter, was a 5-star All-American coming out of high school. Power has been better over the last couple of games though, with an especially strong showing against Texas two weeks ago when he pinned the Longhorns inside their own 6 yard line three different times. True freshman kicker John Mayers has been a huge asset for the Bears this season, making clutch kicks against Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU to win or send those games to OT.

Oklahoma has to have the advantage when it comes to special teams though. CeeDee Lamb is simply too dangerous as a punt returner, they haven’t had the same struggles in the punting game that Baylor has, and Gabe Brkic is one of the best kickers in college football making all 45 PAT’s and all 14 FG attempts on the season.

Key Question:

• Who (if anyone) will come up with an explosive play on special teams? Will CeeDee Lamb rip off a big return? Will Baylor block yet another kick?

Conclusion

Oklahoma is almost undoubtedly the better team here, and is currently a 9 point favorite according to Vegas, as they should be. But this Baylor team is scrappy, knows how to win in tight games, and is hungry for revenge. Charlie Brewer is a wizard with the ball in his hands when trailing late in the 4^th quarter. My head says Sooners, but my heart says the Bears. At the very least, look for Baylor to cover here in what should be a great game with likely heavy CFP-implications.

Prediction: Baylor 34 – Oklahoma 31

If the Oklahoma Sooners and Utah Utes each win their conference championships, and Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC championship, there will be a highly contested debate among analysts over who will receive the last bid into the College Football Playoff.  The Sooners and the Utes would each have a road loss to a respected opponent and when stacked up against one another each team has very similar statistics.  And if that’s the case then how is a decision made?  Well, the Sooners have a key component that the Utes don’t quite have: a massive fanbase and name-brand recognition capable of stimulating a hefty payday for the NCAA.

The Sooners have one of the best offenses in football, but they are not as sharp defensively. Whereas, the Utes have a phenomenal defense, but they are less talented offensively. The Sooners have a few more quality wins than the Utes, with road victories over #9 Baylor and #21 Oklahoma State. However, the Sooners have looked vulnerable in several games this season including wins over TCU, UT and Iowa State, and most notably in the road loss to Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Utes have dominated their competition as they rank 5^th in average scoring margin. Yet, their loss to a USC team hindered by injuries at the Coliseum has some weary of their capabilities. Based off the eye test, there is not one exact thing that voters can point to that can separate the two teams from one another. Therefore, the final spot in the CFP could be decided by another factor, one that is outside what the teams can control on the field.

According to a census produced by the NCAA in 2018, the Sooners ranked 11^th in total home attendance in all of college football with an average attendance of 86,735. More importantly, they are 9^th in all games attendance which measures team’s fan attendance in home, road and neutral games. In 14 games, they had a total of 1,073,464 fans in attendance. When it comes to TV viewership, the Sooners have outperformed the Utes in the ratings nearly every week. A part of that can be attributed to the fact that Utah is in the PAC-12 and thus, starts most of its games around 11 p.m. eastern time. However, I believe more viewers are drawn to the Sooner brand-name and are more inclined to tune in. OU is a football school and has been for a long time. A storied program with a championship pedigree, that holds seven national championships and is ranked 7^th all-time in total wins, it is no wonder why the Sooners draw a crowd. It is simple: more fans means more money for the NCAA.

We have also seen the Playoff committee choose a name-brand school over two lesser known football schools in the past. In 2014, the first year of the CFP, the committee was faced with the tough task of choosing who should be awarded the 4^th spot in the playoff between three teams: The Ohio State University (OSU), Texas Christian University (TCU), and Baylor University (BU). Based off the eye test that year, both TCU and BU were more deserving of the spot than OSU as each team had more wins against ranked opponents and had played more challenging schedules. However, the Big 12 had not yet established a conference championship game, thus there was no true conference champion. Meanwhile, OSU throttled Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game and found a spot in the CFP. However, that is not the sole reason OSU was awarded the final slot. The Buckeyes, too, have one of the most legendary programs in all of college football and have been a perennial power for decades. In addition, they bring with them a crazed fanbase that was 1^st in both total home attendance and total attendance (home, road, and neutral) in 2014. Buckeyes fans travel and the NCAA knew they were a money tree that was ripe for the picking. Like the Sooners, when it came to TV viewership, OSU was ahead of the Frogs and Bears nearly every weekend. Knowing OSU had a proud and large alumni base that would travel across the country to watch their team play, the CFP committee chose a team that would bring monetary value to the NCAA and I believe the same could thing could happen in 2019.

Many fans will wonder: well then why is Utah ranked ahead of OU in the current CFP rankings? In 2014, OSU was 5^th and TCU was 3^rd in the rankings in week 15. However, come week 16 it was the Buckeyes who had surpassed the Frogs into the top 4 after a large victory over Wisconsin. Similarly, I believe a commanding victory over the Baylor Bears by the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday will allow them to jump the Utes in the standings. The Bears will be a more rigid test than the Utes opponent, the Oregon Ducks, who are not only lower in the rankings, but are also a weaker team statistically. Furthermore, the 2019 Oklahoma Sooners possess the star talent on the field, much like the 2014 Buckeyes, that voters like to see. The 2014 Buckeyes had star-studded players such as WR Michael Thomas, RB Ezekiel Elliot and DB Eli Apple. Likewise, the Sooners have playmakers like WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Kennedy Brooks and fan-favorite QB Jalen Hurts. The transfer from Alabama, Hurts has a massive following off the field and will attract viewers to the screen. The Utes have a star in QB Tyler Huntley, however I believe more people will be drawn to their television screens to watch Oklahoma, solely due to the name recognition the Sooners possess.

While this is assuming both teams win this weekend, I believe the choice CFP voters will have to make between the Oklahoma Sooners and Utah Utes will be one where each and every factor, including the ones off the field, will be evaluated very closely. Unfortunately for Utes fans, they will be going up against one of the most well-known and storied football programs in NCAA history with a massive following and fanbase. Historically in the CFP selection, that does not seem to bode well for the “little man.”