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My Bowl Picks vs A Coin Flip

December 13, 2019June 2, 2020 by jonesg17, posted in NCAA Football

On any given Saturday between late August and early December, you can find me on a couch watching college football. I would like to think my knowledge of the sport is quite comprehensive but unfortunately it has not translated over to my picks during bowl season. In almost 10 years, I cannot recall a year in which I haven’t given up by the Hawaii bowl. This season I will be comparing my own bowl picks to a coin flip and see which one has greater success. If the coin wins I will be implementing it in my 2020 strategy.

From what I remember from 7th grade and the scientific method, I need a hypothesis. My hypothesis is that the coin will win in a landslide. My materials are a standard US Quarter and a poorly formatted excel spreadsheet. After flipping the coin 40 times and annoying my brother trying to watch TV in the living room here are the results

BOWL	Match up	MY Pick	Coin Pick
Bahamas	Buffalo vs Charlotte	Buffalo	Buffalo
Frisco	Utah St vs Kent State	Utah State	Utah State
Celebration	Alcorn St vs NC A&T	NC A&T	Alcorn St
New Mexico	SDSU vs Cent Mich	CMU	SDSU
Cure Bowl	Georgia Southern vs Liberty	GSU	Liberty
Boca Raton	SMU vs FAU	SMU	SMU
Camellia	Ark St. vs FIU	AKST	FIU
Las Vegas	Washington vs. Boise St	BSU	BSU
New Orleans	App St. vs UAB	App St	UAB
Gasparilla	UCF vs Marshall	UCF	Marshall
Hawaii	BYU vs Hawaii	Hawaii	Hawaii
Independence	Miami vs LA Tech	LA Tech	LA Tech
Quick Lane	PITT vs EMU	PITT	PITT
Military	UNC vs Temple	UNC	Temple
Pinstripe	Mich St vs Wake	MSU	Wake
Texas	TAMU vs OK ST	OSU	OSU
Holiday	Iowa vs USC	Iowa	Iowa
Cheez-IT	AFA vs Wash St	AFA	WSU
Camping World	Notre Dame vs Iowa St	ISU	ISU
Cotton	Penn St vs Memphis	PSU	PSU
Peach	LSU vs OU	LSU	LSU
Fiesta	Clemson vs Ohio St	Clem	Clem
First Responder	Western Kent vs Western Mich	WKU	WMU
Music City	Miss St vs Louisville	MSU	L’ville
Redbox	Cal vs Illinois	Cal	Illini
Orange	Florida vs Virginia	UF	UVA
Belk	Virginia Tech vs Kentucky	VT	VT
Sun	ASU vs FSU	ASU	FSU
Liberty	K-State vs Navy	Navy	Navy
Arizona	Wyoming vs Georgia State	WYO	WYO
Alamo	Utah vs Texas	Utah	Texas
Citrus	Bama vs Michigan	Bama	Bama
Outback	Auburn vs Minnesota	Minn	Minn
Rose	Wisconsin vs. Oregon	Wisc	Ore
Sugar	Georgia vs Baylor	UGA	Bay
Birmingham	Cincinnati vs Boston College	Cinci	BC
Gator	Tennesee vs Indiana	Indiana	Indiana
Idaho Potato	Ohio vs Nevada	Ohio	Ohio
Armed Forces	Tulane vs Southern Miss	Tulane	Tulane
Lending Tree	ULL vs Miami (OH)	ULL	MIOH

Out of the 40 bowls that have been picked, the coin and my selection differ a total of 20 times. With 1 out of 2 bowls differing I (hypothetically speaking) could lose in an absolute landslide. If that is the case I may just need to retire from anything related to college football and stick to the NFL.

Fade Fernando’s Picks From God

December 13, 2019June 2, 2020 by Jeremy Fernando, posted in Action

For those who know me, you know I am a degenerate gambler. You give me lines on a little league baseball game and I can promise you I’m putting action on it.

Although we have to wait a week until the start of bowl season, this weekend we are treated to a full slate of NFL games as well as the best rivalry in all of sports: the annual Army-Navy game. With that being said, let’s take a look at a few bets I will be making this weekend and I suggest you do so as well. The Lord has spoketh to me. Here’s Grad School’s Picks from God.

*Grad School reminds you to please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem please call 1-800-522-4700.

1. U40.5 in Army-Navy game. In the last 6 years of this matchup, the two teams have combined for over 40 points just once. This matchup is always decided in the trenches and I see no reason why this year should be any different. Further, neither of these teams can throw the ball. They each rely heavily on the ground game meaning lots of time of possession and less points. Take the under.

2. Seahawks -6.5. Up until last week, the Seahawks had been a gold mine for sharps. Everyone not only continues to doubt their overall talent level but also keeps underestimating the greatness that is Russell Wilson. The Panthers fired their head coach, Ron Rivera, earlier this week amidst an overall disappointing regular season and who knows how they will perform. Seahawks should roll.

3. O46 Saints/Colts game. Yes, the Colts offense isn’t great. However, the Saints defense is decimated with injuries and just gave up 48 points to Jimmy G and Co. We know Brees and the Saints will put up points and I expect a shootout. Take the over.

4. TAMU-CC + Whatever against Texas A&M. As of publishing, there is no official line for this game. However, this Aggie basketball team is BAD as they have yet to cover in any game this season. Take the Islanders and the points, doesn’t matter how high.

Now, I am not a professional gambler so please feel free to fade me. In addition, if you do not have the funds or live in an area where gambling is prohibited by law, please do not gamble. As we conclude this weeks picks, let’s all remember Jeremiah 29:11. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Baylor Men’s Basketball Off to a Blazing Start

December 13, 2019June 2, 2020 by colewest86, posted in Basketball, NCAA Basketball

With the release of the latest AP poll, Baylor men’s basketball is sitting at #11. Ranked #16 in the preseason, they have climbed up five spots sitting right outside of the top-10. They are the 2nd highest ranked Big 12 team behind #2 Kansas. Despite losing a close game to Washington in the beginning of the season, Baylor has stormed back to an 8-1 start. They have 3 ranked wins so far including #17 Villanova winning the Myrtle Beach Invitational, #12 Arizona, and #18 Butler.

For some context, Baylor has only beaten 3 ranked teams prior to Big 12 conference play once in the past five years in their 2016-2017 season where the Bears finished 27-8, and #12 in the rankings. The Bears have done that again this season, so fans can only hope that Baylor has that much success or more this year.

Leading the way for the Bears is sophomore guard, Jared Butler, from Lousiana. Butler won the MVP award in the Myrtle Beach invitational, and has continued to play exceptionally well. The 4-star recruit has averaged just over 17 points a game all while shooting 44.4% from three. For comparison, Steph Curry shot 45.4% from three in his NBA MVP season.

Additionally, Baylor has guard, MaCio Teague, averaging 14.8 ppg, and Devonte Bandoo averaging 8.9 ppg while shooting 40.6% from three. Junior, Mark Vital, is continuing to be an excellent utility player and leader making places on the defensive end with over 2 steals a game, and meaningful blocks including a massive one that prevented Butler from taking the lead last week in the final seconds.

Baylor has been playing all this well without an 100% Tristan Clark. Clark is a 4-star forward who missed the season last year with a knee injury, and is currently dealing with a minor foot injury. Once Clark is more healthy, expect this Baylor team to improve as Clark adds a talented rim protector on the defensive side, and another offensive weapon on the offensive side.

With their next games against UT Martin and Jackson State, Baylor has a good chance to be 10-1, and maybe even a top-10 team before Big 12 Conference play that starts in January.

Baylor plays next Monday, December 18th against UT Martin at 9 P.M. CT on ESPNU.

Winners, Losers, and Trustworthiness

December 12, 2019June 2, 2020 by samavers, posted in Fantasy

I want to start with a quick introduction to you. My name is Sam Avers and I am an avid fantasy football owner/player/GM or whatever you would like to call it. I could start by saying my stats, records and whatever to prove to you why you should listen to me and trust me. That is what fantasy football is all about when you are looking for help, right? Trust. You can trust guys like Matthew Berry, Field Yates, Mike Clay, and the list goes on and on but why should you trust a guy like me? Who you have never met? Especially with Semi-Finals coming up? You shouldn’t! But let me prove it to you. Take these players, trust me now if you would like, and watch this Sunday as my players hit all these predications. Then next week, come back and we will start all over again. Now, enough talk. Let’s dive right into my “Winners and Losers” Plays of Week.

Winners (Players who I think could win you the week):

In a game against a bottom-tiered run defense, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (Running Backs for Cleveland Browns) are great starts against the 22^nd ranked Arizona Cardinals. Chubb, obviously leading the league in rushing yards, has given you a double digit performance in every game this year (besides playing against the Steelers), while topping 100 yards on the ground 6 out of the 13 games. Hunt, on the other side, is averaging 12.0 points a game with very limited touches. That just shows the skill level he has as a runner and a receiving back. Look for both guys to have double digit points again this week with Chubb having a RB1 performance.

I tried to be as unbiased as I could while I am still alive in my own playoffs, but I had to give this player some love. Kenny Golladay (Wide Receiver for Detroit Lions) has proven this year that he one of the elite wide outs in the NFL. While Stafford was under center, he averaged 15 points per game. With the back-ups, he has averaged 13. As a Kenny G owner, I will take only a 2 points per game drop with the lackluster quarterback performances he has had to deal with the past 5 games. Coming into this juicy match up, riding a 2-game hot streak with Blough, I see Golladay getting more than 15 points this game against the 32^ND RANKED WR DEFENSE. No Marvin may draw extra coverage, but I still see no problem for Kenny in this fantastic match up. Look for a lot of scoring in this game, which benefits Golladay greatly.

If you haven’t hopped on the Ryan Tannehill (Quarterback for Tennessee Titans) train yet, it’s about time that you do. Ryan has been on absolute fire since getting the nod for the starting role week 7. He is averaging more than 2 touchdowns a game while throwing an average of 264 yards a game as a starter (which is good for averaging 22 fantasy points per game). He faces a Houston Texans defense who just gave up a 309 yard, 3 touchdown game to mediocre Drew Lock. I am expecting about the same stats this week for Tannehill, if not closer to 350 yards.

Honorable Mentions
David Njoku: AZ has been just straight awful guarding tight ends all year long.
Chris Carson: No Penny and up against the 32^nd ranked Carolina Panthers.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Atlanta can’t figure out how to stop good QB’s.
Chris Godwin: No Evans, and a high Over/Under game, I’ll take the over with Godwin.

Losers (Players who may lose you the game)

This one is kind of a layup, but any of the San Francisco 49ers Running Backs (Mostert, Coleman, Breida). I have been playing the Tevin Coleman game all year long and trust me, there is nothing more frustrating than that back field. Shanahan completely plays the hot hand and that could be anyone at any moment (See Mostert week 13, Coleman week 7, etc). If you want my opinion, if you are still reading this, I think Mostert will hurt you badly this week. I think Coleman has a revenge game against his former team, and I think Breida finishes with an average RB3 number. But I could be way off. And that, folks, is the San Fran Backfield. Stay away unless you have some inside news to share.

Quick and short, Arizona Cardinals Running Backs. Don’t do it. That is all.

How about a guy who has put up 3 straight weeks where you have been disappointed in him being in your WR1 slot. Tyreek Hill faces a 7^th ranked defense in the Denver Broncos this week and I do not know where to stand on this. No, I do not think that their defense is so good that they will shut down Mahomes and Hill this weekend. However, I could see the ground game working at home in a game where they want the ball out of Mahomes’ hands as fast as possible. The last thing the Chiefs need is another helmet to his hand. So, in that case, I think Ty Hill really disappoints owners. I think he may have a lot of short passes to him which could pad the stats in ppr, but I don’t see him breaking off a 65 yard bomb this week to boost his fantasy output. I see 5 catches for 64 yards.

Honorable Mentions:
Amari Cooper: Jalen Ramsey effect.
Devin Singletary: Other than the CLE backs, Pittsburgh has swallowed up Running Backs all year.
Alvin Kamara: Disappointing all year long and going up against the 5^th ranked defense in IND.
Sony Michel: If you are still in the playoffs with him on your team, you should know better to never start him.

I hope you guys have enjoyed this read, I’ll see you next week and we will talk about how you did!

The 6 NFL Teams You Do Not Want to Face in the Playoffs

December 10, 2019June 2, 2020 by colewest86, posted in NFL

The National Football League just concluded it 14th week of the season meaning its almost time for playoffs. With only a few more weeks, NFL fans have a pretty good idea who will make a deep run in the playoffs. Here are the 6 NFL teams you do not want to face in the playoffs in order:

1.Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens do three things exceptionally well: run the ball, time of possession, and defense. They are #1 in the league in rushing with 200 rushing yards per game, #1 in time of possession, and have held teams to less than 18 points in 5 straight games. That is a great formula to win a Superbowl. They wear and tear defenses, keep the ball out of the opposing offenses’ hands, and play defense. Not to mention, they have the most versatile QB in the game right now continues to confuse defenses week in and week out.

2. New England Patriots

The two reasons to fear the New England Patriots have been the reasons that have been constant for the past two decades: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, arguably the best NFL coach and QB in history. Regardless that the Patriots lost last week, they are still one of the top-2 teams to be feared in the playoffs. Each year, the Patriots are a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs as long as they have Belichick and Brady who by far have the most playoff experience in the NFL. Additionally, they have the best defense and special teams the Patriots have had this decade. They are averaging 2.76 combined interceptions and forced fumbles a game.

3. New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are another team to be feared. For starters, they are a team that is hungry for a Super Bowl. Being snubbed the past two years (regardless of reason) has made this team out for blood this post season. Regardless of losing this past weekend, the Saints are to be feared because they got experience and an offense that can compete with any team in the league. They got an experienced coach in Sean Payton, and QB in Drews Brees. Experience goes a long way in the playoffs. That is why you hardly ever see QB’s win the superbowl on their first playoff run. Their offense has also put up 26+ points in six straight games showing they can compete with anyone in the league.

4. San Fransisco 49ers

The 49ers are an interesting team. While they do not have a flashy offense like some of the other teams on this list, they just find ways to win games. They just beat the Saints in a thriller on the road in their best offensive performance yet. They also have one of the best defenses in the league behind DE, Joey Bosa, and CB, Richard Sherman. The one question mark is the inexperience in their QB, Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has been nothing exciting this season until this past few games. However, he still lacks experience, which could show come postseason.

5. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are another interesting group. Last weekend, they lost to the Rams where they did not look good at all scoring only 12 points to a division rival. This seems to be more of a fluke game than a patter though. Before this game, the Seahawks 6 out of 7 of their previous games by a TD or a less showing that they win close games. That will be huge come the postseason. Additionally they have a great run game averaging 140+ yards rushing a game along with an experienced QB in Russell Wilson who has won a Super Bowl. This is a team with an experienced coach and QB that knows how to win close games.

6. Kansas City Chiefs

This team may be a little bit more obvious as no team wants to play Mahomes and their high powered offense. Coming off a 23-16 win over the Patriots, the Chiefs are gearing up for a playoff run. This team can put up 28 points in a single quarter behind the league’s reigning MVP. While the Chief’s offense is one of the best in the league, their defense has been playing significantly better allowing 17 or less points in 3 straight games, and having 7 interceptions over the last 3 games. The Chiefs could become a whole different monster if their defense keeps this type of play up.

Would an 8 Team Playoff be the Answer?

December 6, 2019June 2, 2020 by colewest86, posted in NCAA Football

If you are a College Football fan, it is no secret that there is a high amount of controversy surrounding the College Football Playoff system. The current system is comprised of the top 4 teams being picked by a committee to compete for the National Championship. The committee uses the following criteria to choose who makes the playoffs:

championships won
strength of schedule
head to head competition
comparative outcomes of common opponents
strength of schedule

The problem is the committee uses those criteria to decide who the best 4 teams in college football. The main complaints are that there is no systematic way to make the playoffs, and 4 teams leaves out too many teams who “deserve” to be in the playoffs such as an undefeated UCF or at least one of the power 5 champions. Because of the high controversy of the current system, many people want the college football championship to be expanded to 8 teams to properly include more teams… and of course more college football!

This is what an 8 team playoff would look like as of right now based on the current CFP rankings:

As you can see from the bracket, all “Power- 5” conferences are represented, plus an additional teams with only 1 loss are included. The controversy is solved right?

The answer is no. Wisconsin gets in at #8 at 10-2. Then after them you have

#9 Florida 10-2
#10 Penn State 10-2
#11 Auburn 9-3
#12 Alabama 10-2
#13 Oregon 10-2

In order to accurately predict the final rankings, we need to make some assumptions…

Ohio St beats Wisconsin
Utah beats Oregon
Oklahoma beats Baylor
Clemson beats Virginia
LSU beats Georgia

After the conference championships, this would most likely be the final 8 team playoff bracket, which introduces numerous enticing match-ups.

#1 Ohio State vs #8 Florida

Two blue bloods coming together to battle it out. An underrated Florida team would go up against Ohio State who has blown nearly everyone out. The whole country would make sure to watch this game to see if a 2nd tier SEC team could compete with the best of the Big 10.

#2 LSU vs #7 Baylor

An newly revamped Baylor team plays a well established LSU team. Two very different teams as LSU possesses the high powered offense, while Baylor relies on their defense to win games.

#3 Clemson vs #6 Georgia

This is the matchup that everyone would tune in for. Clemson would finally play a worthy team, and Georgia would have a chance to take down that team up in South Carolina. The country never got this matchup before because of Alabama, but the country finally gets the matchup they have waited years to see.

#4 Utah vs #5 Oklahoma

Pac 12 vs Big 12. Finally we get the matchup to finally prove which conference champion is better. As the two top teams fighting for the last spot in the current playoff system, the 8 team playoff would grant us the matchup we all want to see.