It’s game day. Week 15 and we’re on to Cincinnati. Even though the match-up looks extremely lopsided on paper, I’m expecting a hard fought game between a hungry Bengals team and a Pats team that is desperately trying to get it into gear. Here are my thoughts for today’s game:
Are the Bengals that bad?
While the Bengals speed ahead towards picking newly minted Heisman awardee, Joe Burrow, number one overall, they’ve actually shown signs of improvement.
On the offensive side, Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon have come on as of late. Boyd has quietly put together an outstanding season with 73 receptions (t-12th in the NFL), 833 receiving yards (27th) and 3 TDs. He’s a versatile, quick, and trustworthy receiver the likes of which the Pats are missing right now.
Since his return from being benched, Dalton has put up respectable numbers, and led the Bengals to their first win. He’s a veteran that does a good job managing the game and protecting the ball. I expect him to land somewhere next year as a well paid backup.
In his last 5 games, Mixon has scored once in three of them, and had two games over 100 yards rushing, including 146 last week against the Browns. He hasn’t been close to his top ten fantasy RB rating that most gave him, but nonetheless, he’s a dangerous offensive weapon.
On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really expect much out of the Bengals. They’re without number two WR, Auden Tate, who was placed on IR this week, so outside of Boyd and Mixon – there’s not much to worry about. I think this could be another dominant game for a Pats D that has slowed down lately.
The Bengals defense has actually been pretty impressive in their last four games. They haven’t given up more than 21 points, and had their two best performances at home vs. the Jets and Steelers holding them to six and sixteen points, respectively.
I think this is a defense that is comfortable and excited playing at home, and without a doubt is relishing the chance to host a struggling Patriots offense. Former Buckeye Sam Hubbard has been playing well as of late, Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap have also been effective pass rushers progressing in the right direction. I’m expecting this Bengals defense to treat this as their Super Bowl and play with their hair on fire all day.
Can the Patriots Figure it out?
If there was an entry for “get right game” in the dictionary, they’d probably put this game as the definition. The Pats have dropped two in a row (they’ve never dropped three in a row during the Belichick era) and they’re on the road against the worst team in the league. Here’s what I’m looking for today:
Offensive Line
Last week against the Chiefs was a really bad outing for the line as a whole. Minus the performance of Joe Thuney, who earned an 88 grade from Pro Football Focus, Chiefs defenders were penetrating the Pats line all night. Brady was literally under siege on most of his drop backs. The o-line has been hampered by injuries all year, and starting center Ted Karras is questionable today after not playing last week. He’d be a big upgrade over his replacement, James Ferrentz, who got his first NFL start last week and was a big step down from Karras.
If the offensive line can put a good game together today, it will not only be huge for their own confidence, but the whole offense as a whole. Everything starts up front, it’s a huge reason why the offense rolled at the end of the year last year and into the playoffs. The big men up front dominated, the run game followed, and Brady had time to throw the ball. If the big guys play well today, Brady will have more time to throw, which could be huge for building trust with receivers, and the run game will have more of an opportunity to hit its stride.
Throwing the ball
As it has seemed to be every week, the pressure is on Phillip Dorsett, Mohamed Sanu, and N’Keal Harry to make an impact. Harry barely played last week, and since his mishap in Houston, hasn’t been given much of a chance. However, in his only reception last week, he showed a flash of greatness with his now infamous touchdown that was ruled “out of bounds”. I’m still not over that one, fire those refs.
Anyways, I think this receiving core is more talented than they have shown. I truly believe Harry can be an impact player, and all throughout his tenure in Foxborough, Dorsett has been an ultra reliable receiver. Sanu has been disappointing thus far, and if we had to do the trade deadline over again, I wish the Pats went and got Emmanuel Sanders. Having said that, I still think Sanu can be great on this team.
I’m looking for Josh McDaniels and the offensive staff to finally put together the ‘re-make’ of the offense. Last year they reset the offense to rely heavily on the run, this year the offensive identity is still not set. It’s a con because we’re losing games to good teams now because the offense isn’t in sync. But it’s a pro going forward into the playoffs because teams might not know what to expect.
Pats 24 – Bengals 9
I’m expecting this to be another hard fought game with offensive hiccups, defensive dominance, and in the end a Patriots playoff clinching victory.
I think Brady will begin to get it right with some receivers not named Edelman (let’s hope he stays healthy) and I think Harry is primed to take the next step in this category.
I’ve got the defensive scoring at least one touchdown today – if not I wouldn’t be surprised to see multiple takeaways.
Here’s to a good ‘get it right’ game, and marking 12/15/2019 as the second “we’re onto Cincinnati” game that reignites the dynasty.
Keep the faith.
LFG