Category: Football

Pats vs. Chiefs Preview and Keys to the Game

by Brian Murray, posted in NFL

Everyone knows about the recent struggles of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is “deteriorating”, his receivers struggle to get open, and the run game is inconsistent at best.

Despite the national narrative that the Pats are out-manned, untalented, and stand no chance against the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, there is just cause for optimism.

Where would one find this optimism you ask? Well simply press the home button on your dopamine delivery device, I mean your phone, and open up the calendar.

It should say December 7. Key word here being December. Historically, the Patriots dominate in December. And yes, they lost last week on December 1 to the Texans, but it was only the first day of the month so it wasn’t really December yet. Plus with half the team battling the flu, I’ll give them a pass for that ugly loss, but that’s a conversation for another day.

In all seriousness though, the month of December has been good for Patriots fans (and so have a lot of other months -ie. early February). Since Tom Brady became the Patriots starter in 2001, the team is 54-10 in the month of December. Sure, this doesn’t really mean much for the X’s and O’s of tomorrow’s game, but it’s important to remember that the Patriots of years past really started to get it together during this month.

Cause number two for optimism is where the Pats will play this game. Foxborough, Massachusetts to be exact. The Pats undoubtedly play better at home, the defense and the offense are more comfortable, and Gillette stadium has not been kind to young QBs. During the Belichick era, QBs under the age of 25 have never won on the road in New England.

Similarly to my first point, this has nothing to do with the game plan tomorrow. I just hope you can think about these facts as you wake up from your nightmare of Tyreek hill streaking down the sideline for a 75 yard touchdown.

Keys to the game:

This season has been a defensively driven year for the Pats, so I’ll start there.

Containing Patrick Mahomes

Obviously, Mahomes is a generational talent and nobody has quite cracked the code to slowing him down. His numbers have slowed down a bit in his return from his knee injury (less than 200 yards passing in his last two games) but I’m sure Mr. Mahomes has had this one circled on his calendar for awhile and is itching to upend the whole “young QB’s don’t win in New England” narrative. I think the Pats need to put pressure on Mahomes, but on top of that they need to do their best to not allow him to scramble. When number 15 is outside of the pocket, there’s arguably nobody as good at extending plays and improvising. With the Ferrari level speed of the Chiefs receivers, Mahomes can afford to run around and wait for someone to get open. So, put pressure on Mahomes, but keep him in the pocket.

Pats DBs vs. Chiefs WRs

Last week against the Texans I think the Pats secondary had one of its worst games. Aside from Stephon Gilmore (Gilmore for DPOY), the Texan’s WRs, TEs and Deshaun Watson had a good day. They were effective down the field, especially in the middle, and had a long touchdown pass against one on one coverage with Johnathan Jones. Jones has been a top ten DB this year so I’ve got nothing against him, but what I’m hoping for is the return of Jason McCourty. Out the past couple weeks with a groin injury, his absence has left the Pats with a bit less depth, versatility, and speed. If McCourty is able to go this Sunday, he’ll play an instrumental role in containing Mecole Hardman and some of the other Chiefs WRs.

Brady’s trust and communication with his WRs

It’s been a revolving door at the position of wide receiver for the Pats this year. At week two it looked like they’d assembled a QB’s dream of pass catchers. Now in week thirteen, we’ve got two rookies playing substantial snaps, and a banged up veteran in only his 5th game with the team. Last week the receivers struggled to create separation, and seemed to miss some audible signals from Brady. It may take more than a week to iron out these issues, so I’m expecting to see a healthy dose of Sony Michel in this one. But, you never know what you’re gonna see when it comes to the genius in the hoodie.

If the Pats are going to succeed in the air this week, it’s going to be from the slot. The Chiefs D has not been good against slot receivers this year, and that lends itself well to a Pats offense who loves some speedy slot guys. Obviously, Julian Edelman will be a focal point of the passing attack, but that means he’ll also be a focal point of the defensive game-plan. I expect to him doubled for much of the game until somebody else can step up. Hopefully, Sanu is healthy enough to take the next step in his development with Brady (maybe get some new receiver gloves as well) and Dorsett doesn’t miss anymore signals from 12.

Prediction:

This is a big week for the AFC playoff picture. If both the Pats and Bills pull out wins, the Pats will be back in first place for the AFC, and retain the top spot in the division.

Pats 31 – Chiefs 24

LFG

Utah Lost and It’s my Worst Nightmare

by Jeremy Fernando, posted in NCAA Football

Utah lost. Oh no. As someone who is an avid SEC fan and in a league full of big 12 fans (specifically Baylor graduates) it will be my worst nightmare if Baylor manages to make it into the top 4. The apocalypse, armageddon and the rapture sound more appealing than Baylor getting into the CFB playoff.

Listen, do I respect Matt Rhule and the job hes done with this Baylor football program? Yes, absolutely. You’d have to hate a comeback story to not. However, this isnt exactly a pg story. We all know why Baylor’s program came to a crashing halt and in all reality it wasnt too long ago.

For the Baylor fans in the audience who were in bible study while I was doing extracurricular activities on my friday nights, save me the holier than thou speech. Before I get too much hate I want to say I have the utmost respect for Baylor University. In fact, 2 of my best friends and fellow contributors are Bears alum and they are 2 of the best gentlemen I’ve ever met. Doesn’t matter to me though. The football program should have received the death penalty 3 years ago and now they are back from the dead.

Bottom line: all I’m saying is my life will be imminently worse if Baylor wins tomorrow afternoon. For the first time in my life, Boomer Sooner.

Big 12 Championship Preview

by Alec Murray, posted in NCAA Football

We are less than 2 hours away from the first kickoff of championship weekend when Utah takes it’s CFP hopes into the PAC-12 Championship against Oregon. Here, we’ll be previewing the Big 12 Championship which will kick at 11:00 AM CST Saturday morning between two 11-1 teams in the #6 Oklahoma Sooners and the #7 Baylor Bears.

As is the nature of a round-robin league, this game will be a rematch from the November 16th thriller in Waco. Up 31-10 at the half (and 28-3 at one point), the Baylor offense vanished, allowing Oklahoma to come roaring back to a 34-31 victory while controlling the ball for 24 of the 30 minutes in the second half.

Heading into tomorrow’s title game, the Sooners will be looking to win their 5th straight conference title and 7th of the decade. The Bears, meanwhile, will hope to avenge their brutal loss from three weeks ago and put a bow on what has been a magical season that has surpassed all expectations for this rebuilding program. With a win, either team could make a strong case for the 4th spot in the College Football Playoff. Although, if Georgia upsets LSU or Utah looks extremely convincing against Oregon, the Big 12 would likely be left out regardless of this game’s outcome.

Disclaimer: Despite my best efforts, as a recent Baylor grad, there is going to be some very innate bias going on.

Let’s get into it:

OU Offense vs BU Defense:

Oklahoma Offense:

The Sooner offense is hands down the best in the country. They rank #1 in SP+ offensive efficiency and #1 in total offense with 564 YPG, but this isn’t exactly the same high-flying, fast-paced, spread offense that we’ve seen the past several years led by Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. As Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy pointed out last week, OU is really more of “a wishbone team… This is a triple option team, and it’s just disguised as a spread.” The numbers back this up too. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has 196 carries on the year compared to just 140 from Kyler Murray last season.

This heavier run-based approach has allowed the Sooners to control the ball very successfully to the tune of 16 TD drives of 4+ minutes in conference play (and 12 in their last 5 games). For comparison, Baylor only has 7 such drives in conference games this year. Make no mistake though, Oklahoma can still strike quickly especially via the ever-explosive WR CeeDee Lamb who sat out of the first matchup against Baylor in concussion protocol.

Baylor Defense

This Baylor defense is elite, which is not something you would expect to write about any Big 12 defense much less this Baylor unit that, last year, struggled to generate turnovers, allowed explosive play after explosive play, and ranked 91st in total defense. With a focus on eliminating big plays, defensive coordinator Phil Snow has turned this group of experienced seniors around, shifting to a 3-3-5 scheme in the off-season that allows the defense to keep plays in front of them. As a result, the Bears are ranked 15th in the country in SP+ defensive efficiency and are tied for 2nd in turnovers forced.

The defensive line group has been the Bears’ greatest strength. Led by Big 12 Defensive POTY James Lynch, Baylor is 19th in the nation in tackles for loss and 9th in sacks. This is one of the best defenses the Big 12 has seen in several years. Not without blemish though, third downs have been this teams’ glaring weakness. Opponents are converting on third down 39% of the time against the Baylor defense, ranking them 66th in the FBS. OU’s offense, meanwhile, converts on 52% of third downs, good enough for 4th in the country.

Keys to the Matchup

  • Last time, Oklahoma clawed back into the game on Jalen Hurts’ legs and finding space via short dump offs on crossing routes over the middle. Will the Baylor defensive play-calling adjust and be slightly more aggressive? Or will they drop back in an effort to contain Lamb and the rest of the OU receivers group?
  • In the second half of the first meeting between these teams, OU was 9 for 11 on third down. Can the Bears’ defense get themselves off the field by means other than a turnover?

BU Offense vs OU Defense

Baylor Offense

The Baylor offense doesn’t have a particularly strong identity, but one primary source of success for this offense has really been the legs of quarterback Charlie Brewer, albeit in a very different way from Jalen Hurts in the OU offense. While the play-calling does include a reasonable number of designed runs for Brewer, many of his rushes have resulted from scrambles and have come at crucial moments in close games. Pass protection has been a huge issue for Baylor currently ranked 95th in the country allowing 2.4 sacks per game. Not all of the blame rests on the offensive line though, as Brewer has shown a distaste for throwing the ball away (or at all sometimes)

This unit is not without play-makers though. Senior Denzel Mims was a first team All-Big 12 selection at WR and probably one of the best jump ball receivers in the country. Tyquan Thornton is an electric sophomore and a dangerous deep ball threat. The Bears will also get a shot in the arm with the return of versatile RB Trestan Ebner to full health. The junior has good vision and cut-back ability in the running game and is even better catching passes out of the backfield, but Ebner has been limited due to an injury for much of Baylor’s conference schedule.

Oklahoma Defense

Similar to the story with the Baylor defense, Oklahoma has improved drastically this year on the defensive side of the ball. The Sooners currently rank at 41st in SP+ defensive rankings, which may not sound like much but is an impressive reversal considering this defense was 101st in total defense in 2018. Many have (accurately) attributed OU’s lack of success in the CFP to their lack of defense, but this unit might just be good enough to support their elite offense. Led by veteran LB Kenneth Murray, the Sooners have been exceptional on third down, allowing opponents to convert on just 31% of attempts, good for 13th in the country.

The one thing holding this unit back is a lack of turnovers. Forcing just 11 on the season, Oklahoma is tied for 121st nationally in takeaways. They have, however, come up with them at key moments. An interception on a 2 point conversion attempt late in the fourth quarter prevented an upset at the hands of Iowa State. Stripping JaMychal Hasty and picking off Charlie Brewer in the second half were vital in that comeback over Baylor, and lastly a late interception of Max Duggan thwarted a potential TCU comeback two weeks ago in Norman.

Keys to the Matchup

  • What will Baylor do to slow down the pass rush and provide better protection for Brewer? More designed QB runs to keep the defense honest? Keeping TEs and RBs back in pass protection?
  • Can the Baylor offense stay on the field on third down? A large component of Oklahoma’s comeback was forcing three 3-and-outs in the second half, which kept the Baylor defense from catching a breather.

Special Teams

Baylor has been an incredibly confusing team on special teams this season. They are tied for second in the nation in blocked kicks with 5 on the season, but have been abysmally bad in the punting game and thus have struggled in the field position department. This lack of success punting the ball has been especially baffling as Isaac Power, Baylor’s true freshman punter, was a 5-star All-American coming out of high school. Power has been better over the last couple of games though, with an especially strong showing against Texas two weeks ago when he pinned the Longhorns inside their own 6 yard line three different times. True freshman kicker John Mayers has been a huge asset for the Bears this season, making clutch kicks against Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU to win or send those games to OT.

Oklahoma has to have the advantage when it comes to special teams though. CeeDee Lamb is simply too dangerous as a punt returner, they haven’t had the same struggles in the punting game that Baylor has, and Gabe Brkic is one of the best kickers in college football making all 45 PAT’s and all 14 FG attempts on the season.

Key Question:

  • Who (if anyone) will come up with an explosive play on special teams? Will CeeDee Lamb rip off a big return? Will Baylor block yet another kick?

Conclusion

Oklahoma is almost undoubtedly the better team here, and is currently a 9 point favorite according to Vegas, as they should be. But this Baylor team is scrappy, knows how to win in tight games, and is hungry for revenge. Charlie Brewer is a wizard with the ball in his hands when trailing late in the 4th quarter. My head says Sooners, but my heart says the Bears. At the very least, look for Baylor to cover here in what should be a great game with likely heavy CFP-implications.

Prediction: Baylor 34 – Oklahoma 31

Would an 8 Team Playoff be the Answer?

by colewest86, posted in NCAA Football

If you are a College Football fan, it is no secret that there is a high amount of controversy surrounding the College Football Playoff system. The current system is comprised of the top 4 teams being picked by a committee to compete for the National Championship. The committee uses the following criteria to choose who makes the playoffs:

  • championships won
  • strength of schedule
  • head to head competition
  • comparative outcomes of common opponents
  • strength of schedule

The problem is the committee uses those criteria to decide who the best 4 teams in college football. The main complaints are that there is no systematic way to make the playoffs, and 4 teams leaves out too many teams who “deserve” to be in the playoffs such as an undefeated UCF or at least one of the power 5 champions. Because of the high controversy of the current system, many people want the college football championship to be expanded to 8 teams to properly include more teams… and of course more college football!

This is what an 8 team playoff would look like as of right now based on the current CFP rankings:

As you can see from the bracket, all “Power- 5” conferences are represented, plus an additional teams with only 1 loss are included. The controversy is solved right?

The answer is no. Wisconsin gets in at #8 at 10-2. Then after them you have

  • #9 Florida 10-2
  • #10 Penn State 10-2
  • #11 Auburn 9-3
  • #12 Alabama 10-2
  • #13 Oregon 10-2

In order to accurately predict the final rankings, we need to make some assumptions…

  • Ohio St beats Wisconsin
  • Utah beats Oregon
  • Oklahoma beats Baylor
  • Clemson beats Virginia
  • LSU beats Georgia

After the conference championships, this would most likely be the final 8 team playoff bracket, which introduces numerous enticing match-ups.

#1 Ohio State vs #8 Florida

Two blue bloods coming together to battle it out. An underrated Florida team would go up against Ohio State who has blown nearly everyone out. The whole country would make sure to watch this game to see if a 2nd tier SEC team could compete with the best of the Big 10.

#2 LSU vs #7 Baylor

An newly revamped Baylor team plays a well established LSU team. Two very different teams as LSU possesses the high powered offense, while Baylor relies on their defense to win games.

#3 Clemson vs #6 Georgia

This is the matchup that everyone would tune in for. Clemson would finally play a worthy team, and Georgia would have a chance to take down that team up in South Carolina. The country never got this matchup before because of Alabama, but the country finally gets the matchup they have waited years to see.

#4 Utah vs #5 Oklahoma

Pac 12 vs Big 12. Finally we get the matchup to finally prove which conference champion is better. As the two top teams fighting for the last spot in the current playoff system, the 8 team playoff would grant us the matchup we all want to see.

Sooners or Utes: Who’s In?

by Jeremy Fernando, posted in NCAA Football

If the Oklahoma Sooners and Utah Utes each win their conference championships, and Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC championship, there will be a highly contested debate among analysts over who will receive the last bid into the College Football Playoff.  The Sooners and the Utes would each have a road loss to a respected opponent and when stacked up against one another each team has very similar statistics.  And if that’s the case then how is a decision made?  Well, the Sooners have a key component that the Utes don’t quite have: a massive fanbase and name-brand recognition capable of stimulating a hefty payday for the NCAA.

The Sooners have one of the best offenses in football, but they are not as sharp defensively. Whereas, the Utes have a phenomenal defense, but they are less talented offensively. The Sooners have a few more quality wins than the Utes, with road victories over #9 Baylor and #21 Oklahoma State. However, the Sooners have looked vulnerable in several games this season including wins over TCU, UT and Iowa State, and most notably in the road loss to Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Utes have dominated their competition as they rank 5th in average scoring margin. Yet, their loss to a USC team hindered by injuries at the Coliseum has some weary of their capabilities. Based off the eye test, there is not one exact thing that voters can point to that can separate the two teams from one another. Therefore, the final spot in the CFP could be decided by another factor, one that is outside what the teams can control on the field.

According to a census produced by the NCAA in 2018, the Sooners ranked 11th in total home attendance in all of college football with an average attendance of 86,735. More importantly, they are 9th in all games attendance which measures team’s fan attendance in home, road and neutral games. In 14 games, they had a total of 1,073,464 fans in attendance. When it comes to TV viewership, the Sooners have outperformed the Utes in the ratings nearly every week. A part of that can be attributed to the fact that Utah is in the PAC-12 and thus, starts most of its games around 11 p.m. eastern time. However, I believe more viewers are drawn to the Sooner brand-name and are more inclined to tune in. OU is a football school and has been for a long time. A storied program with a championship pedigree, that holds seven national championships and is ranked 7th all-time in total wins, it is no wonder why the Sooners draw a crowd. It is simple: more fans means more money for the NCAA.

We have also seen the Playoff committee choose a name-brand school over two lesser known football schools in the past. In 2014, the first year of the CFP, the committee was faced with the tough task of choosing who should be awarded the 4th spot in the playoff between three teams: The Ohio State University (OSU), Texas Christian University (TCU), and Baylor University (BU). Based off the eye test that year, both TCU and BU were more deserving of the spot than OSU as each team had more wins against ranked opponents and had played more challenging schedules. However, the Big 12 had not yet established a conference championship game, thus there was no true conference champion. Meanwhile, OSU throttled Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game and found a spot in the CFP. However, that is not the sole reason OSU was awarded the final slot. The Buckeyes, too, have one of the most legendary programs in all of college football and have been a perennial power for decades. In addition, they bring with them a crazed fanbase that was 1st in both total home attendance and total attendance (home, road, and neutral) in 2014. Buckeyes fans travel and the NCAA knew they were a money tree that was ripe for the picking. Like the Sooners, when it came to TV viewership, OSU was ahead of the Frogs and Bears nearly every weekend. Knowing OSU had a proud and large alumni base that would travel across the country to watch their team play, the CFP committee chose a team that would bring monetary value to the NCAA and I believe the same could thing could happen in 2019.

Many fans will wonder: well then why is Utah ranked ahead of OU in the current CFP rankings? In 2014, OSU was 5th and TCU was 3rd in the rankings in week 15. However, come week 16 it was the Buckeyes who had surpassed the Frogs into the top 4 after a large victory over Wisconsin. Similarly, I believe a commanding victory over the Baylor Bears by the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday will allow them to jump the Utes in the standings. The Bears will be a more rigid test than the Utes opponent, the Oregon Ducks, who are not only lower in the rankings, but are also a weaker team statistically. Furthermore, the 2019 Oklahoma Sooners possess the star talent on the field, much like the 2014 Buckeyes, that voters like to see. The 2014 Buckeyes had star-studded players such as WR Michael Thomas, RB Ezekiel Elliot and DB Eli Apple. Likewise, the Sooners have playmakers like WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Kennedy Brooks and fan-favorite QB Jalen Hurts. The transfer from Alabama, Hurts has a massive following off the field and will attract viewers to the screen. The Utes have a star in QB Tyler Huntley, however I believe more people will be drawn to their television screens to watch Oklahoma, solely due to the name recognition the Sooners possess.

While this is assuming both teams win this weekend, I believe the choice CFP voters will have to make between the Oklahoma Sooners and Utah Utes will be one where each and every factor, including the ones off the field, will be evaluated very closely. Unfortunately for Utes fans, they will be going up against one of the most well-known and storied football programs in NCAA history with a massive following and fanbase. Historically in the CFP selection, that does not seem to bode well for the “little man.”