Author: Brian Murray

For the first time in 9 seasons, the most dominant team in all of sports will play on NFL Wild Card weekend.

So yeah, it’s not ideal, the Pats got beat at home by a 5-11 Dolphins team and lost the first round bye. On the bright side though we’re in the playoffs, we’re onto Tennessee, and it’s a new year and new season. Everyone knows things get different in New England during January and February. This is the real football season for the Pats.

I’m not going to dwell on the loss to the Dolphins for a few reasons. First is that it is what it is – we lost. Second is that it has happened before, and third is that the Pats are in the playoffs and they aren’t. So enjoy the beach fellas.

Anyways the loss hurts more than just a regular loss because the Pats lost the first round bye. It’s not a huge deal in my opinion but it opens the door for more injuries and leaves less time for already existing injuries to heal.

I know for a fact that Julian Edelman, who has undisclosed but probably serious injuries to his shoulder and ankle could’ve used an extra week to rest. Jon Jones and Jason McCourty, each dealing with groin injuries could’ve used those days as well. A few O-lineman have been banged up as well, but hey, it’s football.

So, let’s move onto this weekend, the Wild Card game against the Tennessee Titans in Foxborough.

Ever since Ryan Tannehill took over in Tennessee, the Titans have really been rolling. Not only is Tannehill the highest rated QB in the NFL since he’s been starting, wide receiver AJ Brown is not only the leading rookie receiver in the NFL, but also the leading receiver in the league. This Titans offense is no joke, I expect Brown to draw coverage from Gilmore plus another defender for the whole game. The Pats will no doubt have to take away the best offensive target through the air.

Now, let’s talk about the Titans best player. Running back Derrick Henry. The Titans offense is essentially built off of Henry. They want to play smashmouth bruising football, and Henry is just the back to do that. He’s 6’3″ 240, has run for 1,540 yards this year and added another 206 through receptions. This guy can break a tackle from any linebacker and then immediately turn on the jets and go 75 yards in a blink of the eye. I expect containing Henry to be at the top of the Pats’ defensive gameplan. We simply cannot have another game like the Dolphin’s game where they dominate the time of possession and move the ball down the field chunk by chunk.

On the offensive side I’m mostly concerned about the health of Edelman and the offensive line. Edelman is obviously banged up and was pretty much a non factor against the Dolphins. If the Pats are going to make a deep run this year they’re going to need legendary performances from #11.

Tom Brady also needs to find a way to make it work. I know all the talk this year has been “he doesn’t have weapons” and “nobody can get open”. I’m done with that talk. It’s the playoffs – time to show up and play as hard as you can with what you’ve got. Tom’s made it work with lesser than average receiving corps his whole career. The time for excuses is over, go out and make it work.

With that being said, if the Pats are going to have a consistent offensive attack it’s going to be on the ground. I thought Sony Michel had a good game against the Dolphins and gained good chunks of yardage when he had the blocking. He’ll probably be leaned on a good bit. I still would like Rex Burkhead to be used more robustly. He also had a good game against the Dolphins, but didn’t get enough touches to make a big impact.

All in all, I’m pretty nervous for this one. The team that showed up against the Dolphins looked dispassionate, low energy, and uninspired. I’m hoping that the opposite team shows up this Saturday.

Keep the faith.

LFG.

Well.. the Pats lost. It was an excruciatingly frustrating game to watch. Ugly offense, abominable officiating, and a disappointing performance all around for a Pats team that has now dropped two in a row to division leaders. Sure, the Pats have struggled in years past, just last year for example, they were at one point 9-5 and written off by the masses. But this time around it just feels different. The frustration from Brady is palpable, nobody seems capable of stepping up, but then again.. the real season hasn’t started yet. So, all frustration aside, let’s dive into the game a little bit.

The Offense

First and foremost, I want to come right out and say – boy was I wrong about how the game would go. I predicted an optimistic 31-24 victory.. wrong. I predicted that Sony Michel would be relied on throughout the game.. he had 9 carries. I predicted that this could be the game that Mohammed Sanu finally stepped up and established himself as the number two receiver.. wrong again.

I saw two main problems with the Pats offensive attack yesterday and they aren’t new problems. The offensive line allowed rushers to disrupt Brady all night long, and there was no reliable second option for Brady to target.

On the offensive line, I have to say it was just disappointing all night long. Shaq Mason has not had a good year after putting together a great season last year and getting paid, and Isiah Wynn, while an upgrade from Marshall Newhouse (no idea how that guy lasted as many weeks as he did) has not lived up to the 1st round draft pick we used on him. To top it off, we’re on our third string center, who unfortunately had to go up against Chris Jones, one of the premier defensive linemen in the NFL. All in all, not a great performance, and it certainly affected Brady’s ability to throw.

On the receiver side, Edelman continues to be an absolute stud. The dude is 33 years old, constantly takes big hits, but somehow continues to put up huge numbers. He’s currently on a streak of 43 games in a row with at least 3 receptions for 25 yards or more. Unreal is the only way to put it. Other than that though, there are zero positives to speak of. Our first round draft pick, N’Keal Harry, was a non-factor. Our de-facto 2020 2nd round draft pick, Mohammed Sanu, whom everyone said was an “ideal fit” in New England, was a non-factor. And our rookie UDFA, Jakobi Meyers, who has admirably worked so hard to put himself in this situation, cannot catch a ball. I mean Brady threw him a perfect back hip ball in the end zone, Meyers turns to catch it, the ball hits him square in the chest and drops straight to the ground. I don’t catch many balls anymore, but when I do, I like to use my hands. I guess the only thing we can do from here on out is pray that someone puts it together and steps up.

It’s simply too easy for competent defenses right now. Blitz Brady, double Edelman, and you’ve got at least a 75% chance that the Pats do nothing.

The Defense

I was 0-3 on offensive predictions, and I was 0-1 on my defensive predictions as Jason McCourty hardly played in his return to the lineup.

I think the defense played great minus the busted coverage play in which Mecole Hardman scored the TD. This is the second week in a row Johnathan Jones has gotten beat deep, but other than that he played well and did a good job containing Tyreek Hill.

It was a tough first half to watch as the Chiefs held the ball for much of the half and had long methodical drives down the field. However, the Pats regrouped after the break, and held the Chiefs to three points, 97 yards, and allowed Mahomes a measly 57 yards through the air in the 2nd half. That second half performance alone deserves a football version of the Bronze Star or something.

The Officials

Name one other profession in the world (other than commissioner of the NFL and NCAA) where you can make so many blatant mistakes and keep your job. These dudes shouldn’t even be allowed to ref Pop-Warner football.

A Look Ahead

We’re onto Cincinnati. Which is eerily similar to the 2014 blowout in Kansas City.

It’ll be interesting to see if the offense can handle a 1-12 Bengals team. I’m sure the defense will ball out, but if the offense can’t get it done again the panic button will definitely be out from the garage and placed right in the living room.

Keep the faith.

LFG

Everyone knows about the recent struggles of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is “deteriorating”, his receivers struggle to get open, and the run game is inconsistent at best.

Despite the national narrative that the Pats are out-manned, untalented, and stand no chance against the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, there is just cause for optimism.

Where would one find this optimism you ask? Well simply press the home button on your dopamine delivery device, I mean your phone, and open up the calendar.

It should say December 7. Key word here being December. Historically, the Patriots dominate in December. And yes, they lost last week on December 1 to the Texans, but it was only the first day of the month so it wasn’t really December yet. Plus with half the team battling the flu, I’ll give them a pass for that ugly loss, but that’s a conversation for another day.

In all seriousness though, the month of December has been good for Patriots fans (and so have a lot of other months -ie. early February). Since Tom Brady became the Patriots starter in 2001, the team is 54-10 in the month of December. Sure, this doesn’t really mean much for the X’s and O’s of tomorrow’s game, but it’s important to remember that the Patriots of years past really started to get it together during this month.

Cause number two for optimism is where the Pats will play this game. Foxborough, Massachusetts to be exact. The Pats undoubtedly play better at home, the defense and the offense are more comfortable, and Gillette stadium has not been kind to young QBs. During the Belichick era, QBs under the age of 25 have never won on the road in New England.

Similarly to my first point, this has nothing to do with the game plan tomorrow. I just hope you can think about these facts as you wake up from your nightmare of Tyreek hill streaking down the sideline for a 75 yard touchdown.

Keys to the game:

This season has been a defensively driven year for the Pats, so I’ll start there.

Containing Patrick Mahomes

Obviously, Mahomes is a generational talent and nobody has quite cracked the code to slowing him down. His numbers have slowed down a bit in his return from his knee injury (less than 200 yards passing in his last two games) but I’m sure Mr. Mahomes has had this one circled on his calendar for awhile and is itching to upend the whole “young QB’s don’t win in New England” narrative. I think the Pats need to put pressure on Mahomes, but on top of that they need to do their best to not allow him to scramble. When number 15 is outside of the pocket, there’s arguably nobody as good at extending plays and improvising. With the Ferrari level speed of the Chiefs receivers, Mahomes can afford to run around and wait for someone to get open. So, put pressure on Mahomes, but keep him in the pocket.

Pats DBs vs. Chiefs WRs

Last week against the Texans I think the Pats secondary had one of its worst games. Aside from Stephon Gilmore (Gilmore for DPOY), the Texan’s WRs, TEs and Deshaun Watson had a good day. They were effective down the field, especially in the middle, and had a long touchdown pass against one on one coverage with Johnathan Jones. Jones has been a top ten DB this year so I’ve got nothing against him, but what I’m hoping for is the return of Jason McCourty. Out the past couple weeks with a groin injury, his absence has left the Pats with a bit less depth, versatility, and speed. If McCourty is able to go this Sunday, he’ll play an instrumental role in containing Mecole Hardman and some of the other Chiefs WRs.

Brady’s trust and communication with his WRs

It’s been a revolving door at the position of wide receiver for the Pats this year. At week two it looked like they’d assembled a QB’s dream of pass catchers. Now in week thirteen, we’ve got two rookies playing substantial snaps, and a banged up veteran in only his 5th game with the team. Last week the receivers struggled to create separation, and seemed to miss some audible signals from Brady. It may take more than a week to iron out these issues, so I’m expecting to see a healthy dose of Sony Michel in this one. But, you never know what you’re gonna see when it comes to the genius in the hoodie.

If the Pats are going to succeed in the air this week, it’s going to be from the slot. The Chiefs D has not been good against slot receivers this year, and that lends itself well to a Pats offense who loves some speedy slot guys. Obviously, Julian Edelman will be a focal point of the passing attack, but that means he’ll also be a focal point of the defensive game-plan. I expect to him doubled for much of the game until somebody else can step up. Hopefully, Sanu is healthy enough to take the next step in his development with Brady (maybe get some new receiver gloves as well) and Dorsett doesn’t miss anymore signals from 12.

Prediction:

This is a big week for the AFC playoff picture. If both the Pats and Bills pull out wins, the Pats will be back in first place for the AFC, and retain the top spot in the division.

Pats 31 – Chiefs 24

LFG