Sports gambling is stupid, idiotic, and you will always lose money, but I freaking love it. Any new tactic or insight I can gain into the world of sports gambling is huge. What if I told you that winning bets and making money is simple? Flip a coin.
Gamblers love to think they have locks and that they are smarter than Vegas. The simple truth is that they are not. Every gambler when looking at spreads may think oooooo that spread looks good. This is music to the ears of any Sportsbook. The reality is that Vegas sets the spread to a mathematical 50/50. So if you think that a spread looks good and that a certain team will for sure cover, think again.
The reason for this topic is my experience in a NFL game Pick/em league this season. There were 10 people in it and we picked 5 games a week. Every Wednesday night our commissioner sent the spreads for every NFL game that week. We would then choose 5 of those games to bet the spread. This allowed us to choose spreads that we thought looked “good”. I started out really hot leading the league in the first week. I felt good, I boasted and by Week 4 my pride had gotten the best of me. I was dead last.
I had no hope going into Week 6 and so instead of using my own knowledge I turned to a higher power, “THE COIN.” I thought that a coin couldn’t do any worse than me and so I would do coin flips for Week 6. I would flip a coin for each game to see if I would bet on it and then I would flip one to choose which team I took. In the first week I went 4-1. And from this point on I used “THE COIN” for the rest of the season. I wouldn’t do any research, any stat checking, or any other measures that I used to do. I would simply “Trust The Coin.”
Fast forward to Week 16 and I am on top by 2.5 games in prime position to win. I had only done coin flips for previous weeks. I was 10-14 with my own knowledge and with the coin I ended up going 36-22-3(3 pushes). The coin had given me a win percentage of 62%.
I ended up winning my league by a half a game with an exciting finish in Week 17. I won the league because of Jameis Winston’s pick 6. That shut out everyone else and I had won my league by flipping a coin.
The spread is truly a 50/50. Vegas does an amazing job at using data analytics and stats to come up with these spreads. It is crazy how close these spreads are time and time again. So many times I have just lost a bet by a point or two. There needs to be a good reason to take a certain team by the spread, otherwise it is just a coin flip. If you ever need/want gambling advice from me, I will say 3 words to you, “Trust The Coin”.
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